Charlie Baker's Crystal Ball

Well, our publisher’s crystal ball has been working really well over the past several months. Charlie Baker was way ahead of most of us in 2001 about several developments in the world at large (talking about a recession on its way before Greenspan even noticed!), and in the Collision Repair Industry in particular.

Consider his track record:

1. Charlie was an early skeptic about the dot-com gold mines, insisting, in what some of us deemed an old-fashioned way, that any business, Internet or otherwise, needs to make real money.

   Investors who watched in amazement as stock prices soared for their dot-com babies are still gazing in despair at dismal numbers.

2. Back in January 2001, Charlie predicted in his investment page that Keystone would "turn the corner in terms of sales and profit recovery" by January 2002. Keystone’s stock price has risen from under $7 in January 2001 to $17 in January 2002.

   Automotive refinish manufacturers should be able to take heart, if Charlie’s prediction this month turns out to be correct. He sees, for them, despite overall poor 4Q (2001) results, "a slow recovery if, as I believe, the economy as a whole moves toward recovery in the third quarter (2002)."

3. In his August 2001 analysis of CCC Information Sys-tems, Charlie pointed the finger of blame, writing, "Our best guess is that management took their eyes off the ball and got enamored with other businesses that were related to, but not a part of the core business."
4. Ford management may have read that article because, as Charlie also predicted, Collision Team of America and other non-core businesses acquired previously by Ford are up for sale.
5. At an INSIGHT staff meeting in early December, Charlie picked Diminished Value as the hot topic for 2002, and so far, here we are with DV on CIC’s agenda for the year and a special feature this month.
6. Charlie did pick State Farm for our Who Pays for What? Fair Player Award this year, but so did many of us. This insurer seems determined to form trustworthy relationships with quality collision repair facilities, despite general insurance industry bottom line concerns.